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Within the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.